But wait! The Fed is necessary to the promotion of stable economic growth—or so convention wisdom says. The idea here is that without a central bank, the economy would be plagued by wildly oscillating business cycles. The only hope is a "countercyclical policy" of raising interest rates to cool an overheating boom, and then slashing rates to turn up the flame during a bust.
In actuality, the Fed’s modus operandi has been to trick capitalists into doing things that are not aligned with economic reality. For example, the Fed creates the illusion, through artificially low interest rates, that there is both higher savings and higher consumption, and thus all assets should be worth more (making their holders invest and spend more—can you say "bubble?"). The perpetuation of this trickery only delays the market’s eventual, and often precipitous, return to reality.
Many economists now recognize that the massive housing bubble of the early and mid-2000s was caused by the artificially low interest rate approach of the Greenspan Fed, enacted in response to the dot-com crash (itself the ostensible result of artificially low rates). At the time, this was viewed as textbook pro-growth monetary policy; the economy (allegedly) needed a shot in the arm to get consumers and businesses spending again, especially after the 9/11 attacks.
It appears those "textbooks" are wrong. Economists Selgin, Lastrapes and White analyzed the Fed’s record and found that even focusing on the post-World War II era, it is not clear that the Fed has provided more economic stability compared with the pre-Fed regime that was characterized by the National Banking system. The authors concluded that "the need for a systematic exploration of alternatives to the established monetary system is as pressing today as it was a century ago."
In other sectors, we don’t normally defer to a committee of a dozen experts to set prices. Yet this is what the Fed does with its "open market committee" that routinely sets a target for the "federal funds rate" as well as other objectives. If we all agree that central planning and price-fixing don’t work for computers and oil, why would we expect it to bring us stability in money and banking?
On this, the 100th birthday of the Fed, it’s time to ask ourselves: Wouldn’t we be better off without a central bank?
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Mark Spitznagel is the founder and chief investment officer of the hedge fund Universa Investments and author of "The Dao of Capital: Austrian Investing in a Distorted World" (Wiley, 2013).